Application of Strategic Foresight to Village Banking in Zambia

Document Type

Dissertation

Publication Date

Spring 5-2-2026

Keywords

Women, Investments, Africa, Village Saving Loans, Strategic Foresight

Abstract

This book examines Village banking and its role as a central mechanism for advancing financial inclusion in Zambia, particularly for low-income and underserved populations excluded from formal banking systems. Despite demonstrated benefits in income generation, resilience building, and women's economic empowerment, village banking groups face growing pressures from regulatory gaps, operational vulnerabilities, and rapid technological change within the financial sector. This study examines the current role and future trajectory of village banking in Zambia using a Strategic Foresight approach. Drawing on literature reviews, contextual analysis, and scenario planning, the research identifies key drivers of change, including the expansion of digital financial services, national financial inclusion policies, and emerging fintech competition. The study develops alternative future scenarios ranging from digitally integrated community finance institutions to gradual institutional decline due to technological and structural displacement. Findings indicate that village banking can remain relevant if supported by adaptive governance structures, digital capability development, regulatory recognition, and targeted financial literacy initiatives. The study concludes that community-based financial systems should not be viewed as transitional mechanisms but as complementary institutions within a hybrid financial ecosystem. By integrating foresight into development planning, policymakers and practitioners can enhance the sustainability, inclusiveness, and resilience of village banking in Zambia's evolving financial landscape.

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